From what I can tell on The Internets, America has suddenly been thrown into complete chaos and her very future is now in question because a 90-year-old lady “unexpectedly” died after 47 brushes with cancer. As a natural cynic and charming pessimist, I agree! The United States is circling the drain…but we were already doing that anyway. At any rate, I have calmed myself down by mulling over all of the possible scenarios that may arise over the next few months, because even if all of the outcomes are terrible, I feel better if I know what they are. This is what I’ve come up with, from best case to worst case.
Cheetolini decides not to put forth a nominee, loses the election.
As of this morning, President Velveeta was was still telling the country he plans to nominate someone, most likely a woman, most likely this weekend, about a month before the election. However! He is a perpetual liar, and a self-serving, world class sack of shit. Most of the Republican Establishment wants a nominee and a quick confirmation because that will give us the most Conservative Supreme Court in decades, and with a 6-3 split, they can outlaw abortion, gay marriage, and all happiness for the next generation.
Pumpkin Spice Putin is not part of the Republican Establishment. He’s a lone wolf who only cares about himself, and if the wrong (right!) person whispers in his ear that dangling a nominee is better for him politically, he would probably go that route. It’s perfectly logical: Elect me again, and I’ll nominate this conservative judge and hand over the Supreme Court to the GOP for the next 20 or 30 years. It’s a good strategy considering he has nothing to brag about right now. Then we beat him in November, and the problem is solved.
The nominee doesn’t make it to a vote or isn’t confirmed, and Adolf Twittler loses.
Not making it to a vote and not being confirmed are slightly different but still dependent upon the same handful of Senators who pretend to be a smidge more independent from the rest of the Republican Party. Back in Obama’s term, Mitch McConnell and Matroness Lindsey Olin Graham Devereaux Sugarbaker said the President shouldn’t be able to seat a Supreme Court justice during an election cycle. They are liars, and no amount of shaming them for their hypocrisy will matter, so please stop wasting your breath on this. If you want something to pay attention to, keep watch on which Senators have now said — since RBG passed away — that they still believe that. As I’m writing, this is the count:
You can keep up on the Washington Post, but Democrats need four Republicans to withhold their support in order for the vote to fail. Right now there are two confirmed and one maybe with 29 yet to speak on the topic. Hopefully Mitt Romney will find that backbone he pretended he had a few months ago and do the right thing.
There’s a confirmation, but we take the Senate and Biden wins.
Republicans don’t have principles, so I’m not counting on four of them to actually block the nominee. If Biden wins and we pick up the Senate, we could pack the court and make the newest Conservative windbag useless. If Uncle Joe wins, we only need to pick up three Senate seats to take power because Kamala will be the tie breaker. The reelection landscape is a great map for us this year, because the Blue seats up for reelection are pretty solid and there are fewer of them. There are a lot of Red seats, and a good number have started to lean Blue or fall into the tossup category.
Nothing in the Constitution says we have to have nine Supreme Court justices. We’ve had between five and ten. The last President to seriously attempt to expand the court was FDR, but he was met with a lot of resistance even within his own party and he failed.
That was then, and this is now. Democratic voters are tired of being represented by politicians who won’t even bust a grape in a fruit fight. Republicans come armed with assault rifles and we show up with one boxing glove from the early 60s with moth holes in it. We are ready to replace them with people who will actually do their jobs and they know that, which is why they’re already floating the idea of packing the Court if McConnell successfully pulls off this power grab. Biden is on record from a long time ago saying it would be a bad idea to pack the Court and Conservative Democrats say it sets a bad precedent, that whichever party is in power will just alter the Court and it will no longer be a stable, non-political institution, but screw all of them. It’s time to actually play the game, or get off the field.
There’s no confirmation and we take the Senate, but Biden loses.
In this case, everything I just wrote applies, except Kim Jong Ugly vetoes whatever act we pass to expand the court. We’d need a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress to override him, and we just won’t ever have the numbers for that. We’re stuck with a 6-3 court for at least the next four years. If Stephen Breyer retires (and he definitely will), the Senate should block any nominations and just hold the Court in place until 2024 when we run somebody better than Joe Biden.
There’s no confirmation before the election, Mango Mussolini wins, and we don’t take the Senate.
There’s a confirmation, the Fanta Fascist wins, and we don’t take the Senate.
Those Senators who don’t believe an outgoing President should seat a Supreme Court judge would then vote to confirm if Biden loses in November. There is a scenario where he wins, but we take the Senate, and those Senators say “the people have spoken, and their Senators should decide who the next judge is” but we already know that’s not going to happen. The Supreme Court will be 6-3. Breyer will retire (or retire) and the Supreme Court will be 7-2. In that case, you will find me in Sweden with my new husband or wife who says my dark skin is “exotic” and I’ll just deal with the fetishization for however long it says on the pre-nup before I can get a divorce and enough money to live on.
But seriously, if you want to do something, save your energy for what matters. You can’t shame a Republican Senator into sticking to what they said five minutes ago, let alone four years ago. Whether or not there’s a confirmation is completely out of your hands, so don’t worry about it. Let that go. We’ll get a sixth Conservative judge by November, or we won’t. You can’t do anything about it. What you can do is prevent a 7-2 Court by focusing on the Senate races that could flip Blue. What you can do is work for a 13 seat Court by focusing on those races and making sure Biden wins in November.
Mitch McConnell will win his race. Stop giving AmyMcGrath your money. Focus on the Democratic challengers in these six races:
Mark Kelly, Arizona
John Hickenlooper, Colorado
Theresa Greenfiend, Iowa
Sara Gideon, Maine
Steve Bullock, Montana
Cal Cunningham, North Carolina
We can’t stop whatever will happen, but we can mitigate the damage if we flip the Senate and put Biden in the White House. So let’s focus on that part.
And now, I’m off to hit these Swedish lessons on Duolingo because this whole country finna be on fire the day after the election regardless of who wins anyway.
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